| By Kolsen Shunk | February 28, 2022 |
The Republic of Korea, or South Korea, is having an election on the 9th of March, this year. Each president serves a five-year term and is limited to only one term. Incumbent president Moon-Jae-In who has governed the nation since 2017, therefore, cannot seek re-election. This upcoming election will determine the direction of the country for the next five years, as well as give Koreans a chance to show their approval of the current government and their response to the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitics, economic management, and much more that will be discussed in this article.
First, a brief history of South Korean democracy: after WWII Japan was expelled from Korea and a new nation was to be established. The Soviets wanted a communist-allied government in Korea, whereas the Americans wanted an anti-communist allied government in Korea. These two states went to war with each other, which resulted in essentially the status quo, and an armistice ever since. The anti-communist Republic of Korea, hereafter referred to as South Korea, was ruled by a authoritarian dictator, who was overthrown in 1960 to be replaced by another authoritarian dictator, Park Chung-hee, whose policies were similar to those of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. In 1987 the dictatorship was overthrown and a democratic state was established which has been the norm in South Korea since.
South Korea also rapidly developed a very rich economy by investing in education, infrastructure, production, and exports while simultaneously limiting foreign competition and using quotas to develop an efficient, productive, and strong export-oriented economy. This enabled it to effectively compete with Western companies by the time South Korea opened its doors to the world.
South Korea has both a president and a prime minister. The prime minister leads the National Assembly, which is similar to the parliament of Canada. Most members are elected via first-past-the-post geographical districts, but some are elected via nationwide proportional representation. Each member of the NA serves for four years. The president is elected nationwide via plurality vote every five years and is limited to one term to prevent dictatorial tendencies. Essentially, whoever wins the most votes wins in presidential elections, no matter how narrow the margin or how small the percentage. Moon Jae-In was elected with just over 41% of the vote in 2017, and presidents have been elected with as low as 36% of the vote.
Moon Jae-in came to power after South Korea's first female president Park Geun-Hye was impeached due to a corruption scandal in which she used her powers to seek large donations from several South Korean companies to donate to two foundations under her control. Following the impeachment, her right-wing party split into two, the more right-wing faction stayed with the party, whereas the more center-right faction formed a new party, the People Party, which split the vote and allowed Moon Jae-In’s center-to-center-left Democratic party to easily win the 2017 election.
President Moon Jae-In has implemented a series of policies in office such as expanding healthcare coverage, raising the minimum wage to roughly CAD $9.25, reducing the maximum working week to 52 hours from 68, reducing coal and nuclear energy consumption in favor of natural gas, and beginning peace talks with North Korea. However, he also created a very complex real estate system which made it very difficult to buy and sell homes that contributed to a housing price crisis in South Korea.
His approval rating is sitting between 35-40% as of now, with a disapproval rating of 50-55%. Moon’s approval rating did skyrocket during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, as most governments did. Parliamentary elections were also scheduled during what happened to be his peak in popularity, and his party won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which is large enough to fast-track legislation. Although a 35-40% approval rating may seem low, it’s important to note that this is very high by South Korean standards, as most Korean presidents have approval ratings of 10-20% by the end of their term, and Moon is quite personally popular with many voters.
One key aspect of South Korean politics is regionalism. There is a prominent East/West divide. This dates back decades. The Southwest province of Jeolla votes strongly for the liberal party of South Korea because before democratization the conservative dictatorship of South Korea cracked down on student protestors in the region, and has had a deep suspicion of all conservative parties since. Meanwhile, the Gyeongsang province votes strongly for the conservative party of South Korea as it is the province of Park Chung-hee, who, despite being a dictator, is considered the founder of Korean conservatism and the man who built the South Korean economy to the powerhouse it is today and enjoys large support among its voters. The aforementioned Park Geun-hye is the daughter of Park Chung-hee. Aside from those provinces, Urban areas tend to vote for the liberal party whereas rural provinces tend to vote for the conservative party. However, regionalism is beginning to fade from Korean politics. (Below is the 2017 election map of South Korea)
The liberal party is currently the Democratic Party whereas the conservative party is the People Power Party. South Korean parties tend to change their name and rebrand every election to seem new, fresh, young, exciting, and shake off any ties to previous scandals or incompetent governments, but there has always been one large center-to-center-left liberal party and one large right-wing conservative party. Last election, People Power Party was called ‘Liberty Korea’, and in 2012 Liberty Korea was called Saenuri, and the Democratic Party was called ‘Democratic United’.
There are currently four noticeable parties running for president: Lee Jae-Myung of the Democratic Party, Yoon Seok-yeol of the People Power Party, Sim Sang-Jung of the Justice Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Party. The People Party is what remains of the center/center-right party created as a product of the right-wing split in 2017, although in this election right-wing voters are much more determined to take back the presidency and have concentrated much of their support behind the People Power party, leaving the People Party at a fraction of their former support. The Justice Party is a center-left social democratic party that resulted from the United Progressive Party after it was banned due to suspicions of supporting a pro-North Korean rebellion in South Korea. The new Justice Party is much more centrist than most social democratic parties such as those in Europe. However, only two of these candidates have any chance of victory.
Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-Myung is the former governor of the Gyeonggi province and a former civil rights attorney who resigned his position as governor to run for president. He has garnered controversy due to reports of his wife’s use of civil servants to run errands for her, support for BTS members to skip military service, illegal gambling by his eldest son, and more. People Power Party leader Yoon Suk-yeol is a former public prosecutor who was temporarily removed from his position due to allegations of ethical violations but was reinstated after a successful appeal. He has garnered controversy after advocating for a 120-hour workweek, stating there was ‘basically no radiation leak’ at Fukushima, support for the former dictator of South Korea who cracked down on protestors in Jeolla, and support for deregulating food safety standards. Lee Jae-Myung and Yoon Suk-yeol are both polling around 40% right now (February 27th), constituting a very tight race, however anything can happen within the final week of the campaign.
This election has also been categorized as a fight for every imaginable voter demographic, such as bald voters, but perhaps the biggest fight has been to get young voters on their side. Although younger voters normally voted for the Democratic Party and its predecessors, young voters (particularly young male voters) are shifting towards the People Power Party. High real estate prices have caused many young voters to turn to cryptocurrency, which the Moon administration proposed to tax before backlash from crypto users. The Covid pandemic has also led to an increase in the youth unemployment rate, and many young people find there is little social mobility in South Korea. In addition, the feminist policies of the Moon administration have been generally unpopular with young Korean men, and the People Power Party has used all three of these issues as talking points against the Democratic Party and has led to a shift in voter demographics. For example, the People Power Party received 72% approval from young men in Seoul during an exit poll. The People Power Party is most popular among voters under 30 and over 60, whereas the Democratic Party is most popular among voters between 30 and 60 years of age.
Another important field of South Korean politics is diplomacy. South Korea is one of the few countries that has a strong dependency on both the United States and China. The Democratic Party favors reconciliation and unification with North Korea, as well as closer ties with China. The People Power Party has a more hawkish stance on North Korea, as well as a more hostile attitude towards China and better relations with America.
South Korea's upcoming election will shape it and its politics for the next five years and potentially longer, to decide the direction the nation wants to take post-pandemic in a rapidly changing world. But what transpires on March 9th is up to Koreans to decide, and we can only await the results.
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